.The Long Jump starts tomorrow. Anybody planning something ??
Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday
Sunday will see a few showers in the north and west, along with a few spells of rain in southern England and Wales. Sunshine developing elsewhere in the UK. Monday will be a drier and calmer day, with mostly cloudy skies and a few brighter spells. Rain in the north-west, along with a strengthening breeze. Tuesday will be breezy and wet in the north and west, drier elsewhere.. . Summary
A little milder into early October
A cool and autumnal end to September with northerly winds and a polar maritime airmass. A milder and unsettled start to October, however, as low pressure is expected to bring windy conditions and spells of rain into the weekend. A broadly westerly flow is then expected to continue into the following week with further spells of wet weather, but high pressure may then build in towards mid-week bringing more settled but cooler conditions.
The second and third weeks of October may bring generally just above average temperatures for much of the UK. Wet and windy spells are favoured for Northern Ireland and much of Scotland with the Atlantic storm track likely to be close to or to the north of the UK. At the moment the final week of October could be the most unsettled one. Ex-tropical storms continue to have the potential to disrupt the pattern through this period.
Wednesday 28 Septemberto – Sunday 2 October
Remaining blustery and unsettled this week
Wednesday will be a calmer day than of late with sunshine for many. However, the area of low pressure which brought rain earlier in the week will bring further outbreaks to some eastern and central areas. Thursday will see a ridge of high pressure but a cold front will sweep in from the west on Friday, bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Temperatures over this time will be below the average for the time of year and Friday will be particularly windy with gales possible in the north west.
Saturday is likely to remain breezy and unsettled with showers in the north west and longer spells of rain possible in the south. Turning drier and calmer on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure develops from the south. However, there may be a few areas of rain in places due to uncertainties in the strength of the high. Temperatures are also likely to return closer to the average for the time of year.
Monday 3 Octoberto – Sunday 9 October
Unsettled to start. Milder and more settled later
A westerly or south-westerly pattern will prevail in the first part of the week. Low pressure will lie over north western parts of the UK bringing unsettled conditions. Further south and east there is a chance of a few areas of rain but it will be more settled. From mid-week onwards high pressure centred over Scandinavia will extend a ridge down into NW Europe bringing more settled conditions to much of the UK. Low pressure will remain close by to the north west of Scotland and Northern Ireland. The main risk factor is that the high is slightly weaker, allowing for fronts to move in from the north west.
Temperatures will trend a little above the average for the time of year as a result of the more settled weather. It will also generally be drier and calmer to the south and east.
Monday 10 Octoberto – Sunday 23 October
Above average temperatures, wet and windy spells
see high pressure continuing to dominate across much of Europe. There is some model disagreement in the NE Atlantic, where one model takes low pressure across Iceland. This would increase the chances of associated fronts across the UK, raising the probability of precipitation slightly. Temperatures will be close to average or just above normal. A wetter pattern across Northern Ireland and Scotland but it should not be extreme. More seasonal wind and precipitation is expected across England and Wales.
Confidence is lower during the third week of October. The most likely pattern has high pressure declining slightly and sitting over western and south western Europe. The low pressure track will be nearer the UK and towards Scandinavia, perhaps also intruding more into north, central and eastern Europe. Near normal to slightly above temperatures are likely for most areas. It will be rather wet and windy across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Eastern England may also see enhanced wind levels.
Through both the second and third weeks of October there is the risk of disruption due to ex-tropical storms recurving across the north Atlantic. These energetic storms could disrupt the flow of the jet stream and the general development of low pressure systems. There is a risk through this period of a wetter and windier pattern more broadly across all areas.