The Long Jump is ON !

October starts tomorrow so that means Long Jump time.
I sense we shall enjoy some good ballooning weather in the coming 31 days so I hope you manage to choose a good slot for your Long Jump.

It should be easy to respect current Corvid advice – please use common sense and enjoy some freedom!

It looks like you have a few days to prepare….

A cool, wet and windy start to October
The rest of this current week will see a sustained fall in pressure over the UK – a good week to keep an eye on your barometer! A couple of deep low pressure areas will become slow moving overhead the UK this weekend and early next week, with brisk winds and bands of cloud and heavy rain circulating around them. Low pressure is looking increasingly likely to be a key feature of the UK’s weather in the first half of October, but it should shift towards Scandinavia and eastern Europe later in the month, allowing some drier and calmer conditions across the south at times.

Wednesday 30 September – Sunday 4 October

Turning increasingly wet, windy and cool
The last few days have seen some reasonable sunshine over the UK, especially western areas. Winds also dropped out for a time, as a high pressure ridge crossed the UK on Tuesday 29th. However, for the rest of this week, increasingly deep areas of low pressure and active frontal systems will impinge on the UK and bring us all some wet and windy conditions.
A broad band of heavy rain, with strong southerly winds ahead of it, will move slowly eastwards over all parts during Wednesday 30th September. The rain will be especially heavy and prolonged over southern Scotland. A brighter and less windy day on Thursday, with some welcome sunny spells, after the extensive cloud and rain on Wednesday.
But trouble looms to the south of the UK on Friday as a combination of a developing area of low pressure and a very strong jet stream aloft, interact. In recent days, forecast models have been struggling for consistency on Friday’s forecast, but more recently there has been increased consistency for the low pressure area to deepen rapidly over northern France and the English Channel during Friday. We expect bands of heavy rain, accompanied by strong easterly winds, to extend northwards over many areas of the UK on Friday night and Saturday. The heaviest rainfall will be over southern England, the eastern Pennines and eastern Scotland. Winds over parts of south and south-western England could be strong enough to bring down some tree branches. Temperatures will dip below average.

Monday 5 October – Sunday 11 October

An unsettled, often wet, and windy week expected
For the first full week of October, the UK will remain under the influence of low pressure. This is being caused by the north Atlantic jet stream carving out a huge trough over the western side of Europe, as it comes up against a stubborn high pressure blocking ridge over Scandinavia and western Russia. What this means is that our weather is likely remain unsettled and quite changeable, with a lack of sustained dry, calm and settled weather.
Because the jet stream will often pass just to the south of the UK, then temperatures will be near average at best and often on the cool side of average, as winds come in from a northerly quadrant, rather than a southerly quadrant. When clear skies and light winds between low pressure areas coincide with the normal night time cooling, then some local air frost is expected.
The main uncertainty in the forecast is regarding the exact location of the low pressure track over the UK. Most likely is for the heaviest rainfall and strongest winds to be focussed over the southern half of the UK, rather than the northwest After a drier than average September in the south, some wet weather here will start to increase river and stream levels again.

Monday 12 October – Sunday 25 October

Rather cool, but less wet and windy in the south
Heading into mid-October and beyond, we will see a gradual pattern shift across northern Europe, which will slowly bring changes to the UK weather and where the emphasis of the wettest and windiest conditions will be focussed.
The second full week of October will continue much as the first, with frequent low pressure systems and wet, windy weather for most of the country. Pressure will be highest to the west and northwest of the UK, while low pressure areas will often be slow moving over the UK, the North Sea and Germany. Bands of cloud and rain will continue to feature, especially over eastern and southern parts of the UK. Compared to an average October, there will probably be less wind and rainfall over northwestern areas, as winds from the north or northeast bring less moisture and heavy rain than winds from the southwest. It will be rather chilly at times, and we’ll need to keep an eye out for some wintry showers over the higher ground in the north and also some more overnight frost.

The week beginning 19th October ought to see a change, with the highest pressure close to the southwest of the UK, while we see low pressure strengthening over Scandinavia. This pressure contrast will bring brisk west or northwesterly winds to the northern half of the UK and we can’t rule out a temporary cold northerly plunge for a couple of days. Bands of rain across the north will be interspersed with some showery interludes, with hail and even a crack of thunder at times. A greater number of drier, calmer and fairly sunny days over the southern half of England and also Wales, due to high pressure ridging being close by.

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